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Stochastics and Statistics Seminar Series Jessica Hullman

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Stochastics and Statistics Seminar Series Jann Spiess

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Stochastics and Statistics Seminar Series Dennis Shen

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Stochastics and Statistics Seminar Series Richard Samworth

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Stochastics and Statistics Seminar Series Aaron Roth

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The value of information in model assisted decision-making

Jessica Hullman (Northwestern University)
E18-304

Abstract: The widespread adoption of AI and machine learning models in in society has brought increased attention to how model predictions impact decision processes in a variety of domains. I will describe tools that apply statistical decision theory and information economics to address pressing question at the human-AI interface. These include: how to evaluate when…

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Causal Inference on Outcomes Learned from Text

Jann Spiess (Stanford University)
E18-304

Abstract: (with Iman Modarressi and Amar Venugopal; arxiv.org/abs/2503.00725) We propose a machine-learning tool that yields causal inference on text in randomized trials. Based on a simple econometric framework in which text may capture outcomes of interest, our procedure addresses three questions: First, is the text affected by the treatment? Second, which outcomes is the effect…

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Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data

Dennis Shen (University of Southern California)
E18-304

Abstract: One dominant approach to evaluate the causal effect of a treatment is through panel data analysis, whereby the behaviors of multiple units are observed over time. The information across time and units motivates two general approaches: (i) horizontal regression (i.e., unconfoundedness), which exploits time series patterns, and (ii) vertical regression (e.g., synthetic controls), which…

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How should we do linear regression?

Richard Samworth (University of Cambridge)
E18-304

Abstract: In the context of linear regression, we construct a data-driven convex loss function with respect to which empirical risk minimisation yields optimal asymptotic variance in the downstream estimation of the regression coefficients. Our semiparametric approach targets the best decreasing approximation of the derivative of the log-density of the noise distribution. At the population level,…

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Tractable Agreement Protocols

Aaron Roth (University of Pennsylvania)
E18-304

Abstract: As ML models become increasingly powerful, it is an attractive proposition to use them in important decision making pipelines, in collaboration with human decision makers. But how should a human being and a machine learning model collaborate to reach decisions that are better than either of them could achieve on their own? If the…

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